Well well well, How the Turntables!

Pakistan's defence minister has been in an overdrive on Twitter in the past few days. After declaring that Pakistan was in a "state of war" following a car bombing in Islamabad, Khwaja Asif has now claimed Pakistan is fully prepared for a "two front war" - the fronts being its eastern frontier with India and western with Afghanistan.

The frenzied reaction to recent developments is surprising to many in India, and for varied reasons. For one, New Delhi saw its own deadliest terrorist attack since 2008 just a day earlier than the Islamabad car bombing. More than the timing, however, it is the language that has caught the attention of many Indians. The famous meme "Well well well, how the turntables" comes to mind!

Well well well!

The spectre of a "two front war" has been haunting India ever since the Indo-China war of 1962. Although it has never materialised, the threat has been an important consideration in India's strategic calculus. To suddenly find its western neighbour worried about a two-front war, is astonishing for Indians, to say the least. Factor in the Pakistani cultivation and support of Afghan Taliban for over three decades and the sudden about turn seems inexplicable on the surface. Pakistan wanted Afghanistan to be ruled by their proteges, i.e. Taliban to gain strategic depth against India. Pakistan was as jubilant as Taliban when Kabul fell in 2021. In fact, some of the overzealous Pakistani commentators went so far as to claim that Pakistan had defeated the superpower US in Afghanistan - never mind the official claims of "being a victim of terror" and "being at the forefront on war of terror".

The jubilation has given way to despondence, and how fast! Now it accuses the Taliban to be in bed with India and orchestrating terrorist attacks in Pakistan via the TTP - an organisation separate from the Afghan Taliban, but which shares ideological, and ethnic ties with the Afghan Taliban.

The tables have turned at a breathtaking speed. When India accused Pakistan of harbouring terrorists and orchestrating the Pahalgam attack, in which 25 Hindu tourists were killed mercilessly in front of their families, Pakistan feigned characteristic ignorance and asked for proof. The active training terrorist camps right under the nose of military establishments were not proof enough. Neither was the fact that the terrorists who perpetrated Pahalgam attack went back to Pakistan to their safe havens. When India responded with "Operation Sindoor" and destroyed some of the terrorists’ camps in Pakistani cities, Pakistani army officers were in attendance at the funerals of slain terrorists. At the same time, the link was denied and India was accused of being the aggressor and instigating war against Pakistan. At global forums, Pakistan made it a point to paint itself as the victim of India’s naked aggression.

Now, Pakistan finds itself in India’s shoes. After a number of deadly strikes by the TTP in Pakistan, the Pakistani establishment accused Afghan Taliban of sheltering and instigating the TTP. The script remains the same, only the roles have reversed. Pakistan cited close ties between the leadership of Afghan Taliban and TTP, and the fact that TTP finds safe havens in the Afghan territory as clinching evidences – exactly the types of claims which have been put forward by India with respect to the terrorist groups supported by Pakistan. But Pakistan denies the claims made by India, all the while using the same arguments against Afghanistan!

Of course, Pakistan responded with its own air strikes in Afghan territory, including the capital Kabul. It justified its actions in terms of “punishing the perpetrators” and “acting in the interests of its own citizens” – akin to India’s justification of its “Operation Sindoor”. The irony is not lost on anyone but Pakistan.

India inflicted substantial damage to Pakistan's airbases during Operation Sindoor

While not realising irony of its stand is one thing, Pakistan is playing a dangerous game by trying to escalate the game, for it is not only blaming Afghan Taliban for its own problems but also is implying the presence of Indian hands behind the recent spate of attacks. Pakistan is imagining a two front war because it has a guilty conscience. Its leadership knows about the resources and moral support they have bequeathed on groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba and Hizbul Mujahideen to bleed India by a thousand cuts.

By accusing India of being the ultimate handler of TTP through the Afghan Taliban, Pakistan seeks a moral equivalence with India. Deep down, it knows the chicken have finally come home to roost – yet it can’t admit as much. And so, it tries to project its own reality onto India to deal with both its shame and its anxiety. However, with a war against Afghan Taliban seemingly imminent, the Pakistani leadership should be worried about things more serious than besmirching India’s image.